BURY'S trade will suffer a damaging 25 per cent downturn when shoppers flock to the new out-of-town complex at Dumplington. That is the alarming forecast of a retail expert who will examine the impact on Bury and other nearby towns on a special BBC TV programme.

And Environment Secretary John Gummer says Bury will need to try harder in its attempts to secure major funds to help stave off the threat of such large-scale developments on its doorstep.

"Close Up North" invited Dr Gwyn Rowley, an expert on retailing at Sheffield University, to meet Bury Council's borough planner Jim Metcalf to offer his advice and predictions for the future of the town.

The meeting was arranged to coincide with the programme's focus on Dumplington which is due for completion in 1998.

The BBC 2 programme, shown on Thursday, November 28, investigated the new era of awesome shopping complexes that will impact upon the North West's regional town centres.

The film will also draw a parallel and focus on another giant out-of-town shopping centre at Meadowhall. That particular development has led to a staggering 30-40 per cent loss in trade in nearby Rotherham.

On behalf of the Bury traders, BBC TV invited Dr Rowley to offer his advice and predictions for the future of Bury against the backdrop and the threat posed by Dumplington.

He said: "In Bury, I would like to see more free parking. I would like to see more pedestrianisation and also the incorporation of some restaurants in the streets which are covered over. That is the way to respond positively to the threat."

Of course, as the programme points out, this all costs money and local authorities have to put forward proposals to the Government to gain the vital funds they need for regeneration.

Environment Secretary John Gummer, featured in the programme, acknowledges the pockets of lcoal councils are not as deep as those of the private investors who will fund Dumplington.

On Bury's behalf, the programme makers asked the minister about the beauty contest in bidding for funding. He said: "Bury needs to try harder." But generally, Dr Rowley fears that Bury, along with other North West councils such as Rochdale and Manchester, has left it too late.

But his predictions for Bury are in stark contrast to the views of borough planning officer Jim Metcalf who optimistically told "Close Up North": "I think it is possible that between five and seven per cent could be diverted to Dumplington. We're being realistic."

Of the potential reduction in trade, he said: "From my studies, centres such as Chester, Manchester itself, Rochdale, Oldham, Blackburn and Bury are all going to lose a substantial amount of trade. I am predicting for Bury a reduction of about 20 to 25 per cent."

"Close Up North" challenged Marie and Peter Shotton from Chorlton and their three children to spend a day shopping both at Meadowhall and Bury and give their verdict regarding convenience and product choice.

The family thought Bury combined the High Street names with character and found "people really helpful in the shops". But they discovered the public toilets were dirty and with no changing facilities, compared to Meadowhall.

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