Political Focus, with Bill Jacobs

THE SIGHT of Ulster Unionists negotiating across the floor of the House of Commons with Government and Opposition Whips in the run-up to Monday night's key censure vote smacked of the dog-days of Jim Callaghan's administration.

Eventually the frantic efforts of Tory business managers did a deal to save Agriculture Minister Douglas Hogg's skin and Prime Minister John Major's Government.

However, it is likely that this type of last-minute negotiation, normally conducted in smoke-filled back rooms at Westminster, could happen even more in future.

Unionist leader David Trimble got most of the price he demanded in terms of special treatment for Ulster beef and extra cash for its dairy industry.

There is also clear evidence that he had won a further dilution of controversial aspects of the Northern Ireland peace process, such as restrictions on Orange Marches.

Only time will tell whether he also secured his aim of the creation of a Northern Ireland Grand Committee to debate the Province's affairs along the lines of similar bodies for Scottish and Welsh MPs.

But Labour cannot afford to be too critical, for in the late 1970s they bought off the Unionists with a much greater concession. They gave Ulster extra MPs - a decision that in the current tight Parliamentary arithmetic Labour's Chief Whip Donald Dewar must regret.

The Lib/Lab pact was another key element of the wheeler dealing, as was persuading a Welsh Nationalist MP to take the Labour Whip.

But eventually all foundered when Labour's Irish Nationalist sister party, the SDLP, lost patience.

A hushed House of Commons listened as West Belfast MP Gerry Fitt explained why he and his colleague Frank Maguire, who had made a rare visit to Westminster to 'abstain in person' could no longer keep Jim Callaghan's government in office.

The fear haunting Mr Major is that one day soon Mr Trimble may make the same decision.

It may be communicated to Mr Blair officially, but is more likely to be vouched safe over a chat in the corridor or in the gentleman's toilet.

If he does, the Government will face a vote of confidence and if they lose this month's Wirral South by-election, almost certain defeat.

The current situation is a return to almost three years at the end of the Callaghan administration, when every vote was a potential minefield for the Government.

One veteran MP recalls those years with horror.

He said: "It was an appalling way to run a Government and a country.

"The Government staggered on from day to day, from deal to deal. It was at the mercy of the demands of every minority party."

He sees Mr Major in the same position as 'Sunny Jim' but does not criticise the Unionists - they have every right to get what they can out of the situation. But he also fears that if there is a hung parliament or narrow Labour victory, Tony Blair may find himself in the same position as Mr Major.

Although Labour's opinion poll lead suggests a landslide is on the way, few at Westminster expect one.

Already the doggedly determined Mr Major - the Mike Atherton of modern politics - is slowly clawing back the lead.

Most observers expect a majority of no more than 20, and possibly single figures.

But if Labour is forced to rely on Liberal Democrat support either to govern or as an insurance policy, there will be a price to pay.

That price will be Proportional Representation.

Mr Blair has already backed a referendum on the issue and the man in charge of his talks on constitutional change with the Lib Dems, Livingston MP Robin Cook, is the party's foremost supporter of PR.

One former Labour Whip said: "It would be a nightmare - permanent wheeling and dealing and a government of the lowest common denominator. Every minority party would demand what it wanted in return for support." Senior North West Labour MP Gerry Bermingham (St Helens South) said: "PR would mean a permanently unstable Government. You would never have stable government again."

Thus it seems the brinkmanship and hastily arranged deals we have seen could become a permanent feature.

However, Blaydon MP John McWilliam has a good reason why MPs should vote down PR and keep the present system.

Hung parliaments of the type PR would inevitably produce would have devastating consequences for them all.

He said: "It would mean a lot of nights and days away from the constituency and away from our own beds.

"If every vote is crucial and could bring the government down, being there when it happens is the only alibi that will enable an MP to get away with it."

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.