Political Focus, with Bill Jacobs

THIS weekend's Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Edinburgh is a key test for both Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Foreign Secretary Robin Cook.

It will reveal with devastating clarity whether they really are big performers on the political and world stage.

The occasion is a major international conference with 54 states of every size and type gathered together.

It is also a dry run for Britain's Presidency of the European Union in the first six months of next year, with a major Euro-summit in Cardiff as the jewel in the Crown.

And it will define the true state of relations between Mr Blair, his government and the Queen.

For the Commonwealth is the part of her job that Her Majesty takes the greatest interest in.

She considers it to be more crucial to her role as Sovereign than the more ceremonial aspects of her job.

This led to numerous reputed conflicts between her and former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

The joke that circulated Whitehall throughout her Premiership was of high tension during her audiences with the Queen, where someone insisted on behaving like the Monarch, but no-one could say whom.

One major bust-up came when the Queen heard about the American invasion of Grenada on the Today programme.

A polite request for Mrs Thatcher to visit Buckingham Palace and explain why the Queen had not been informed of the attack on a valued Commonwealth Member got a dusty reply. The Prime Minister was too busy to attend and had not wished to disturb the Queen's sleep with such a minor matter.

Mrs Thatcher was visited by a Buckingham Palace Equerry summoning her attendance to the Royal Presence.

After a lengthy wait and a long frosty interview with Her Majesty, where she was not asked to sit down, the Prime Minister left seething, but in no doubt of the importance attached by the Queen to the Commonwealth.

Photographic evidence of the rift between the two most powerful women in Britain in the 1980s can be seen in the official portraits of CHOGMs of the time.

Almost always the Queen sat Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda, whom she liked a great deal, on the front row between her and Mrs Thatcher, who loathed him!

Mr Blair would dearly like to establish the easy relationship his Labour predecessors Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan are reputed to have had with the Monarch. Although she liked Wilson's worldly wisdom and wit, courtiers say she preferred the avuncular style of Sunny Jim.

But despite his swift actions over Princess Diana's tragic death, there are still question marks over whether she actually appreciated stories about how he "rescued the Monarchy."

And with some questioning whether Mr Blair sees himself more as President than Prime Minister, there are all the seeds for potential behind-the-scenes conflict between the two.

Mr Cook and Her Majesty's problems with the trip to India and Pakistan may have exacerbated any such tensions.

And CHOGM has a habit of throwing up just the type of question that highlights any conflicts between the members - South Africa and Apartheid is the classic example of a real humdinger. This is the type of issue that will test not just Mr Blair's relationship with the Queen, but his leadership qualities on the international stage.

And there are plenty of candidates for the awkward theme of the conference.

For a start there is India, Pakistan and Kashmir - the issue that raised the first questions about Mr Cook's competence. Then there are a raft of human rights issues - Tamils in Sri Lanka and the treatment of opposition parties and supporters in African semi-dictatorships such as Zambia and Kenya.

Nigeria has unhelpfully promised to send observers to watch the angry debate over whether its suspension from the Commonwealth for Human Rights violations should be continued, lifted or beefed up to a full South Africa- style expulsion, amid claims that the abuses have got worse.

There's the future of Canada - split over language - to consider.

The Republican movement in Australia is a great concern to the Queen, while the smaller countries are very angry that it refused to do anything about the greenhouse emissions that threaten to see some disappear under the sea of global warming.

With the EU Presidency and Euro-summit coming up, Mr Blair and Mr Cook need to put in a bravura performance to make this weekend a diplomatic success to inspire confidence.

For issues such as the Single Currency, greater Euro-integration and enlargement of the EU will all be explosive and highly difficult to handle - especially as they impinge on British Sovereignty and the Queen's role.

Failure to demonstrate sure-footedness on both the international and Royal fronts would damagingly suggest that maybe Labour's top team is not ready for the challenge coming in January.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.