Over 2,000 people could be admitted to hospital in Bolton with coronavirus if a second wave hits the UK.

A new online tool, the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science dashboard, has predicted potential hotspots for covid-19 if the infection rate rises, highlighting areas most likely to see a high number of infections and hospital demand.

Bolton Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG), which covers over 285,000 people, is predicted to see a rate of 7.4 admissions to general care units per 1,000 people, which would put 2,109 people in hospital with the virus.

An extra 2.3 admissions per 1,000 people would be made to acute care, receiving treatment for serious illness, which would leave over 655 people in intensive care after contracting coronavirus.

Royal Bolton Hospital says it has "detailed plans" in place for a second wave.

Andy Ennis, chief operating officer for Bolton NHS Foundation Trust said: “We’re well prepared for any future waves of COVID-19.

“We have detailed plans to cope with any potential bed shortages, working with partners in Greater Manchester to ensure that across the system we are ready in case of any significant increase in patients.

“The reason we have coped so well as a system is because our Bolton community have largely followed government guidance and adhered to social distancing. Please, continue to do so and help us keep our resources for those who need it the most.”

In Bolton, the areas hit the hardest include Over Hulton, with 12.3 admissions per 1,000 people to general care, and 4.9 to acute care, and Little Lever, with 12.4 admissions to general care per 1,000 people.

The central area of the borough would see a much lower rate of admissions, with some areas seeing as few as 4.9 people admitted to general care per 1,000 people.

Horwich and Blackrod, Westhoughton, the centre of Farnworth, and the north-east edge of the borough are all marked red on the map, meaning that more than 9 admissions per 1,000 people could be expected.

Bolton CCG fares slightly better than the organisations covering neighbouring Bury and Wigan.

But the virus is predicted to hit the borough harder than nearby Salford and Blackburn with Darwen.

Designed to compliment the government’s test and trace programme, the tool works by looking at data about groups known to be especially vulnerable to covid-19, using factors such as age, social deprivation, population density, ethnicity and hospital capacity.

Professor Melinda Mills, director of the Centre, said: “With additional outbreaks and second waves, thinking not only regionally, but at much smaller scale at the neighbourhood level will be the most effective approach to stifle and contain outbreaks, particularly when a lack of track and trace is in place.”

She pointed to the tool showing Harrow in London would have been a local area with an exceptionally high age-related risk of hospitalisations due to Covid-19.

The Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow was, in fact, also the first to call for a national emergency due to a lack of capacity early on in the pandemic.

The study added: “We estimate that specific pressure points where Covid-19 demand is likely to outstrip the baseline local supply.