THE “R” number in Bury is “likely” to be just below 1 – but the borough is more sensitive to rises in reinfection due to its higher coronavirus case rate.

Local authority leaders have said although it is difficult to calculate the local “R” number, which represents how many people one infectious individual transmits the virus to, data suggests that it is rising in the borough.

This comes after the regional “R” number was revealed last week to be 1.01 in the North West – the highest in England.

But Bury Council’s director of public health Lesley Jones explained that there is likely to be variation in reinfection rates within the region.

She said: “Understanding what this means for Bury is very difficult and we need to look at other data that is available.

“Bury has the second highest rate increase Greater Manchester. Changes to the R number will have different impacts depending on higher rates.

“We can’t calculate the ‘R’ at Bury level, but we’re looking at how we can create an early warning system.

“It’s likely that Bury has an ‘R’ just below one. That’s just a feel from data.

“But we do have a higher rate than other Greater Manchester areas so we are affected more by a rise in ‘R’.”

Chief executive Geoff Little told council and NHS bosses at a strategic commissioning board meeting that coronavirus cases have now “plateaued”.

There have been a total of 782 cases of COVID-19 in Bury as of Monday.

This means the coronavirus case rate is 4.1 per 1,000 people in the borough.

Mr Little also spoke about the impact of the government lifting the lockdown.

He said: “Even though the lockdown is being very gradually lifted, it’s essential that everybody maintains social distancing and obeys the rules.

“We can’t emphasis enough that key message that the data is telling us we are not out of it yet in Bury.”

Council leader Eamonn O’Brien echoed the chief executive’s comments.

He said: “It’s clear the R rate has probably risen in the last few weeks.

“Whilst it doesn’t mean we should be panicking, it’s deeply serious.

“It does mean we’ll have to reiterate some strong messages to our residents about the basics of how we control this.”