The SNP came within a few hundred votes of causing the biggest political upset in Labour's Lanarkshire stronghold since Winnie Ewing snatched Hamilton in 1967. Her daughter, Annabelle, did not quite pull it off for the Nationalists in Hamilton South but the result was still devastating for New Labour. Scottish Secretary John Reid, smug and complacent in the embers of victory, insisted Labour's near-disastrous showing was down to voter apathy. If that were the case New Labour would still have won comfortably, as it did in the Wigan by-election where the turnout was even lower. Hamilton South has shown that the SNP is still a force to be reckoned with, despite tensions about future strategy.
No-one expected the Nationalists to do so well. The campaign itself could hardly have been duller. New Labour put an awful lot into it, with the Prime Minister and his deputy among many MPs who went on the local stump. The SNP effort was much more modest,
largely because it lacked financial and per-
sonnel resources. New Labour chose the
by-election date extremely carefully, creating a peerage for Mr George Robertson to guarantee that ballot day could not be more damaging to SNP prospects. Yet New Labour still came
within a whisker of defeat. In truth, Hamilton South came alive after it was over.
All the parties have a lot to reflect upon. The Liberal Democrats' best showing in the constituency is only about 2000 votes, so 650 on a poor turnout is not too bad. But to finish behind the ultimate single-issue politician, the novice Stephen Mungall (Hamilton Accies), is a huge embarrassment, particularly for a party in the
governing Scottish coalition. Clearly being part
of the executive has done the Lib Dems no favours, hardly surprising perhaps given the
meal they have made of tuition fees. Nor is there a renaissance for Mr Hague or the Tories.
The third-placed Scottish Socialist Party could become the natural home of Old Labourites disaffected by New Labour's need to keep middle England sweet. But the party is all about its charismatic leader, Tommy Sheridan. Remove him and there is little left of substance or chutzpah. For the SNP, the result has underpinned rather than
undermined Alex Salmond's leadership. Despite his rash assertion that the Union will be dead within eight years the rift between the gradualists and secessionists is still there, and is likely to widen over how much effort a party with limited resources should put into fighting Westminster or Holyrood elections. Finding a balance that satisfies both camps will be crucial.
In this sense Hamilton South has merely papered over the brittle cracks. The public does not like by-elections. In Scotland, voters have pigged out at the ballot box after too many elections this year. But there is a deeper malaise concerning the political process that is evident in creeping apathy. It hurts Labour hardest as the biggest party. There is little comfort in victory in Hamilton South. The result could well re-ignite the turf war between Mr Reid and Donald Dewar, and suck in the armies of Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster and Labour MSPs. They are already squaring up to each other. The vote cannot be divorced from, and is indeed symptomatic of, the fundamental political problem for Labour: keeping middle England happy without alienating the Scottish heartland, where so many of the Old Labour values are still held dear.
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