Political Focus, with Bill Jacobs

TONY Blair's new Labour Government has run up against its first real crisis - inevitably Northern Ireland.

The Marching Season once again seemed set to confound all the good intentions of British Ministers.

The Protestant Orangemen were apparently determined to march wherever they want, regardless of the religion, politics or views of the people who live along their routes.

The Catholic republicans were equally intransigent in their desire to stop them marching - regardless of the violence and mayhem involved in achieving that aim.

The Peace Process seemed in ruins until the Orangemen's dramatic U-turn last night to cancel or reroute four controversial marches.

But with grass-roots Protestants unhappy at the decision and the extreme Republicans cock-a-whoop, the Government's problems are far from over.

One effect of the move started by Mr Blair's predecessor as Prime Minister John Major has been to boost the status of Sinn Fein.

Before the process started, the IRA's political wing had been marginalised as a democratic force.

But with the 18-month IRA ceasefire and the prolonged wooing of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness by the Government, they have returned to the centre of the political stage.

Now they have two MPs, not one, at Westminster and their first MPs in the Eire Dail for more than a generation.

They have become one of the major players on the Nationalist side, coming close to eclipsing the more moderate SDLP which produced the original idea of bringing them into talks in the first place. This has had two consequences - neither of them conducive to peace.

It has sparked even greater fear in the heart of Protestants who might have been able to wear greater influence for Dublin and the SDLP's John Hume but cannot stomach the idea of former IRA men gaining power over them.

This makes last night's decision even more amazing and even more to be applauded.

But Sinn Fein, now a leading political player, consequently has far more influence within the Catholic nationalist community that it has had for many years.

The ability of their terrorist colleagues to organise and orchestrate violent demonstrations across the province as a result of the Government's decision to allow the Drumcree march to go ahead is practical proof of this.

To many of us on this side of the Irish Sea, it must seem amazing that such a contentious sectarian march is allowed to go ahead through a Catholic area in the modern day and age.

But suddenly their decision to let Drumcree go ahead and appeal to common sense and goodwill seems to have opened a window for peace.

One must hope that they have a strategy to deal with any unofficial marches that go ahead or any Sinn Fein/IRA provocation.

Next year they hope that the Parades Commission will ban the most controversial marches, building on the Orangemen's goodwill this year. Suddenly there is a welcome whiff of compromise rather than cordite on the streets of Ulster and the prospect of streets aflame for the rest of this summer has receded.

In order to get the Peace Process back on track, Mr Blair and Dr Mowlam are going to have to be very wily and very firm.

The first targets are standing up to Republican violence and fulfilling their pledge that Sinn Fein cannot join the peace train leaving this September if IRA violence has not ceased for good.

The second is to refuse to be cowed by Protestant marchers in future and ban those processions that are clearly more aimed at humiliating local Catholics than keeping any religious and historical traditions.

To achieve any, let alone all, of these aims will require a hard-faced security policy that may sit badly with the new Government's wishes for a less confrontational and more co-operative society.

But that is the only course forward if any hope of peace is to be achieved.

The omens in terms of previous Labour governments are that the latest one may have such strength and courage. Harold Wilson's administration sent the troops in and Jim Callaghan imposed the most Draconian security policy ever in the Province. Basically, Mr Blair has to persuade the nationalists that they need to persuade the Unionists there is nothing to fear if Ulster became part of the Republic.

Equally, he has to persuade the Protestants they must convince the Catholics that they have nothing to lose by staying in the United Kingdom.

Only then can any long term deal be struck.

But as ever in the last 29 tragic years, the first step has to be the achieving the near-impossible task of defeating the men of violence.

As the people of Northern Ireland breathe a huge sigh of relief, so can Mr Blair and Dr Mowlam.

Last night's decision by the local Orange Lodges might only be a start, but it is a pretty good one.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.