THE government's official policy over the single European currency remains "wait and see."

Yet today, as Chancellor Gordon Brown finds himself pressured by pundits, the Opposition and the City to add clarity to that position, the country risks talking itself into speculative turmoil.

See the jitters today on the Stock Market as yet another interpretation is put on when and if Britain will join European Monetary Union.

Three weeks ago shares soared and the pound fell on the strength of claims that ministers were contemplating joining the single currency around the turn of the century if it proved successful.

Today they dived as Mr Brown's weekend comments in a newspaper interview were read as indicating that Britain would not be joining until after the next general election, expected in 2001 or 2002.

The market craves an insight into what is to happen because business looks forward to lower interest rates and freedom from up-and-down exchange rates under the Euro.

But, surely, though the government will find it as sore a test as John Major did as he strove to maintain the same position, it will cling to "wait and see" as long as possible for both economic and political reasons - and perhaps rightly so.

In the first instance, amid the already-admitted stance that it seems highly uncertain that Britain will join in the first wave of EMU in 1999, the government may well wish to see how it works in practice and what its impact on jobs and investment here will be before deciding whether or not to back our membership.

In the second, it may use this gap to determine how British political opinion is shaping on the in-or-out decision, given the sensitivity that exists over scrapping the pound and surrendering control of monetary policy to Europe.

"Wait and see" suits both requirements.

But, of course, it leaves the government open to the pressures for more detail and the uncertainty to which it is exposed today. It also exposes the markets to unsettling see-saw speculation.

The government faces an uncomfortable time on the fence - even if it has good reasons for staying on it as long as possible.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.