A WARNING to all head teachers in Bury: your school could be next for closure. And don't really on logical argument when you want to save it because it does not hold water with Councillor Steve Perkins, executive member for lifelong learning.

As he said at the Bury Council executive committee meeting, he had heard nothing which changed his opinion. He also said he had made his mind up long before. Remember, Coun Perkins, to hear you must first have the ability to listen.

Coun Perkins stated that the only problem with St. Paul's in Ramsbottom was that we have never accepted the projections of the population. In fact, we have never disputed that the birth rate is dropping. What we have disputed are the figures for St Paul's and how those projections were arrived at.

One year the intake was low and it was seized upon by the LEA and treated as the basis for all future estimates. It was said that by 2007 there would be little more than 30 children at the school. However, numbers in reception currently have already doubled and the numbers of children who have St. Paul's as their first choice for 2002 and 2003 are far higher than the LEA's projections.

The number on roll was also inaccurate in the LEA's report, and the "net" intake factor at the school was another thing they ignored. Eventually the LEA had to admit that pupil numbers at St Paul's had risen by eight between September 2001 and January 2002 in spite of the school being in Special Measures at that time.

All the above are facts. Yet Coun Perkins says he has heard nothing which changes his opinion. He says there is a problem in Ramsbottom so obviously facts don't count if the decision is that somewhere just has to close.

Also wildly inaccurate was their estimate of housing development in Ramsbottom. The report states 80 units generating 22 children. One phone call to the planning department revealed 210 properties (generating 58 children) planned or being built, and this is not a ceiling figure.

The estimated revenue savings of this closure exercise are extremely over optimistic. Remember that the capital spend has yet to be calculated. When the dust settles I do not believe this will prove to be a cost-effective exercise.

The LEA do not feel the need to prove anything, because across the borough their figures are reasonably accurate. But that does not mean that all individual schools are predicted correctly. St. Paul's is not.

So I repeat my warning to head teachers across Bury. When the next round of closures comes do not rely on the consultation process. In truth there is no consultation and I feel sorry for Coun Tim Chamberlain and scrutiny panel members who spent all that time investigating and making recommendations, only to be ignored.

And don't rely on Ofsted to save you, either. They said that St Paul's offers value for money, a wide curriculum range and has good SATs results. It appears that any school can be a closure target and Coun Perkins has publicly stated that the closure exercise will be repeated.

STEVE GEHLHAAR,

St. Paul's Focus Group.